Estimation and forecasted water demand for consumption at Kenyir Lake, Terengganu

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Nor Najwa Irina Binti Mohd Azlan, Ms.
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Lake is one of the water sources that has a vast variety of economic potential including water supply, water-based recreational activities, and fishing activities. Kenyir Lake in Terengganu has benefited the country economically due to its numerous functions as a water body. Rapid development within Kenyir Lake caused higher water demand and lowering the water quality. To ensure the sustainability of water usage for activities and development within Kenyir Lake, this study aims to estimate water demand study using Micro-Component Analysis (MCA) method. In line with water requirements in Malaysia, water demand is also estimated using Suruhanjaya Perkhidmatan Air Negara (SPAN) Guidelines. The methods of MCA and SPAN Guidelines implement detailed parameters of activities and development at Kenyir Lake. Results of estimated water demand at Kenyir Lake using MCA and SPAN Guidelines are 1250.0 m3/day and 1254.1 m3/day respectively. The value of total water demand estimated using SPAN Guidelines was slightly higher than MCA since the average daily water demand adopted has been standardised by SPAN according to the type of premises. The second purpose of the study is to forecast the estimated water demand (MCA and SPAN Guidelines) using Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR). The purposes of these forecasts were conducted to validate the amount of water demand estimated and to establish the relationship between variables used. Water demand values for houseboats from FIS-Micro-Component Analysis, FIS-SPAN Guidelines, MLRMicro-Component Analysis, and MLR-SPAN Guidelines were found to be 350.0 m3/day, 425.0 m3/day, 622.2 m3/day and 718.8 m3/day respectively. The third aim of the study was to compare estimated water demands (MCA and SPAN Guidelines) and forecasted water demands (FIS and MLR) using statistical evaluations. The estimated water demands are compared with metered water by Syarikat Air Terengganu (SATU) conducted at Pengkalan Gawi, Kenyir Lake. Results of Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Squared Error (MSE), and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) were found lower in SPAN Guidelines at 18.02, 1947.60, and 44.13 respectively than Micro-Component Analysis. The forecasted water demands (FIS and MLR) compared with estimated water demand (MCA) resulted in lower MAD, MSE, and RMSE at 8.96, 244.97, and 15.65 respectively for MLR. MCA and MLR are more prone in estimating and forecasting water demand at Kenyir Lake. Although the forecasting error for MCA is slightly higher than SPAN Guidelines, the method is better because of the detail parameters considered. The outcomes of the study are beneficial to SATU in ensuring the amount of water supply always meet the demand. Also, the methods applied in this study can be implemented by SATU to revise the water demand at Kenyir Lake regularly. Finally, government can encourage premises owners to practice rainwater harvesting to balance the water sources available at Kenyir Lake.
Estimation and forecasted water demand for consumption