Publication: Single Step Multivariate Solar Power Forecasting using Adaptive Learning Rate LSTM Model with Optimized Window Size
Date
2023
Authors
Kunalan D.
Krishnan P.S.
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Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Abstract
Accurate photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is crucial for the successful integration of residential PV systems into the electrical grid. It enables grid operators to optimize grid operations, ensure stability, facilitate market operations and trading, and plan for future system expansion. In this study, we propose a new model that combines an adaptive learning rate Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) with an optimized window size for improved PV power forecasting. The proposed model is trained and tested using historical time series data of projected PV power and weather conditions, considering the GPS location of the PV system. The model's performance is compared against other commonly used forecasting models, including LSTM, Bi-LSTM, LSTM-Transformer, and CNN-LSTM, for single-step size forecasting, specifically predicting PV power for the next hour. The results demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms all other models in terms of accuracy for the single-step forecasting task. The adaptive learning rate LSTM with optimized window size demonstrates superior performance, indicating its effectiveness in capturing the temporal patterns and dependencies in PV power generation. � 2023 IEEE.
Description
Keywords
Adaptive Learning Rate , LSTM network , Optimized Window Size , PV generation , Solar Irradiation forecasting , Commerce , Forecasting , Learning algorithms , Solar energy , Solar power generation , Adaptive learning rates , Long short-term memory network , Memory network , Optimized window size , Optimized windows , Photovoltaic power , Photovoltaics generations , Solar irradiation , Solar irradiation forecasting , Window Size , Long short-term memory