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Prediction of epidemic peak and infected cases for COVID-19 disease in Malaysia, 2020

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dc.citedby44
dc.contributor.authorAlsayed A.en_US
dc.contributor.authorSadir H.en_US
dc.contributor.authorKamil R.en_US
dc.contributor.authorSari H.en_US
dc.contributor.authorid57211634600en_US
dc.contributor.authorid57215962794en_US
dc.contributor.authorid26654785100en_US
dc.contributor.authorid57203980452en_US
dc.date.accessioned2023-05-29T08:09:44Z
dc.date.available2023-05-29T08:09:44Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.descriptionCOVID-19; disease control; epidemic; epidemiology; fuzzy mathematics; genetic algorithm; infectivity; mortality; prediction; viral disease; Article; calibration; coronavirus disease 2019; epidemic; forecasting; fuzzy system; genetic algorithm; human; Malaysia; model; mortality; prediction; uncertainty; validation process; Betacoronavirus; Coronavirus infection; health survey; pandemic; pathogenicity; public health service; quarantine; virus pneumonia; Malaysia; Coronavirus; Betacoronavirus; Coronavirus Infections; Forecasting; Health Surveys; Humans; Malaysia; Pandemics; Pneumonia, Viral; Public Health Administration; Quarantineen_US
dc.description.abstractThe coronavirus COVID-19 has recently started to spread rapidly in Malaysia. The number of total infected cases has increased to 3662 on 05 April 2020, leading to the country being placed under lockdown. As the main public concern is whether the current situation will continue for the next few months, this study aims to predict the epidemic peak using the Susceptible�Exposed�Infectious�Recovered (SEIR) model, with incorporation of the mortality cases. The infection rate was estimated using the Genetic Algorithm (GA), while the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model was used to provide short-time forecasting of the number of infected cases. The results show that the estimated infection rate is 0.228 � 0.013, while the basic reproductive number is 2.28 � 0.13. The epidemic peak of COVID-19 in Malaysia could be reached on 26 July 2020, with an uncertain period of 30 days (12 July�11 August). Possible interventions by the government to reduce the infection rate by 25% over two or three months would delay the epidemic peak by 30 and 46 days, respectively. The forecasting results using the ANFIS model show a low Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE) of 0.041; a low Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 2.45%; and a high coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.9964. The results also show that an intervention has a great effect on delaying the epidemic peak and a longer intervention period would reduce the epidemic size at the peak. The study provides important information for public health providers and the government to control the COVID-19 epidemic. � 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.en_US
dc.description.natureFinalen_US
dc.identifier.ArtNo4076
dc.identifier.doi10.3390/ijerph17114076
dc.identifier.epage15
dc.identifier.issue11
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85086356262
dc.identifier.spage1
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85086356262&doi=10.3390%2fijerph17114076&partnerID=40&md5=856dcecf42be227e1bf30e3b5395563b
dc.identifier.urihttps://irepository.uniten.edu.my/handle/123456789/25464
dc.identifier.volume17
dc.publisherMDPI AGen_US
dc.relation.ispartofAll Open Access, Gold, Green
dc.sourceScopus
dc.sourcetitleInternational Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
dc.titlePrediction of epidemic peak and infected cases for COVID-19 disease in Malaysia, 2020en_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dspace.entity.typePublication
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