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Streamflow prediction with large climate indices using several hybrid multilayer perceptrons and copula Bayesian model averaging

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dc.citedby20
dc.contributor.authorPanahi F.en_US
dc.contributor.authorEhteram M.en_US
dc.contributor.authorAhmed A.N.en_US
dc.contributor.authorHuang Y.F.en_US
dc.contributor.authorMosavi A.en_US
dc.contributor.authorEl-Shafie A.en_US
dc.contributor.authorid55368172500en_US
dc.contributor.authorid57113510800en_US
dc.contributor.authorid57214837520en_US
dc.contributor.authorid55807263900en_US
dc.contributor.authorid57191408081en_US
dc.contributor.authorid16068189400en_US
dc.date.accessioned2023-05-29T09:05:22Z
dc.date.available2023-05-29T09:05:22Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.descriptionClimate models; Flood control; Floods; Forecasting; Information management; Inverse problems; Mean square error; Multilayer neural networks; Multilayers; Normal distribution; Particle swarm optimization (PSO); Reservoir management; Reservoirs (water); Risk management; Rivers; Stream flow; Uncertainty analysis; Bat algorithms; Bayesian model averaging; Bayesian modelling; Copula bayesian model; Gamma test; Inclusive multiple model; Multilayers perceptrons; Multiple-modeling; Natural hazard; Optimization algorithms; Bayesian networks; flood; flood control; North Atlantic Oscillation; perception; reservoir; streamflow; uncertainty analysis; Kelantan; Malaysia; West Malaysiaen_US
dc.description.abstractStreamflow prediction help the modelers to manage water resources in watersheds. It gives essential information for flood control and reservoir operation. This study uses the copula-based -Bayesian model averaging (CBMA) as an improved version of the BMA model for predicting streamflow in the Golok River, the Kelantan River, the Lanas River, and the Nenggiri River of Malaysia. The CBMA corrected the assumption of the utilization of Gaussian distortion in the BMA. While the BMA used normal distribution for the variables, the CBMA uses different distribution and copula functions for the variables. This study works on the Archimedes optimization algorithm (AOA) to train the mutlilayer perceptron (MLP) model. The ability of the MLP-AOA model was benchmarked against the MLP-bat algorithm (BA), MLP-particle swarm optimization (MLP-PSO), and the MLP-firefly algorithm (MLP-FFA). The models used significant climate signals, namely, the southern oscillation index (SOI), El Ni�o�Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), and the pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) as the inputs to the models. The Gamma test (GT) was coupled with the AOA to provide the hybrid GT for choosing the best inputs. The gamma test was used to determine the suitable lag times of the Nino 3.4, PDO, NAO, and SOI as the inputs. The novelty of the current paper includes introducing new hybrid MLP models, new gamma test for choosing the best input combination, the comprehensive uncertainty analysis of outputs, and the use of an advanced ensemble CBMA model for predicting streamflow. First, the outputs of the MLP-AOA, MLP-BA, MLP-FFA, MLP-PSO, and MLP were obtained, following which, the CBMA as an ensemble framework based on outputs of the hybrid and standalone MLP models was used to predict monthly streamflow. The CBMA at the training level, decreased the root mean square error (RMSE) of BMA, MLP-AOA, MLP-BA, MLP-FFA, MLP-PSO, and MLP models by 28%, 32%, 52%, 53 53%, and 55%, respectively. The CBMA at the training level of another station decreased the mean absolute error (MAE) of BMA, MLP-AOA, MLP-BA, MLP-FFA, MLP-PSO, and MLP models by 6.04, 29%,42%, 49%, 52%, and 52%, respectively. The Nash Sutcliff efficiency (NSE) of the CBMA at the training level was 0.94 while it was 0.92, 0.90, 0.85, 0.84, 0.82, and 0.80 for the BMA, MLP-AOA, MLP-BA, MLP-FFA, MLP-PSO, and MLP models. The RMSE of the MLP-AOA was reported 4.3%, 12%, 14%, and 17% lower than those of the MLP-BA, MLP-FFA, MLP-PSO, and MLP models, respectively. The current research showed the CBMA and the BMA models had high abilities for predicting monthly streamflow. The results of this current study indicated that the CBMA and BMA provided lower uncertainty the standalone MLP models. The general results indicated that the streamflows in the hotter months decreased and flood control is of higher priority during the other months. � 2021 The Author(s)en_US
dc.description.natureFinalen_US
dc.identifier.ArtNo108285
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108285
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85119205079
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85119205079&doi=10.1016%2fj.ecolind.2021.108285&partnerID=40&md5=5820645a6281f7241def790157dc4928
dc.identifier.urihttps://irepository.uniten.edu.my/handle/123456789/25870
dc.identifier.volume133
dc.publisherElsevier B.V.en_US
dc.relation.ispartofAll Open Access, Gold
dc.sourceScopus
dc.sourcetitleEcological Indicators
dc.titleStreamflow prediction with large climate indices using several hybrid multilayer perceptrons and copula Bayesian model averagingen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dspace.entity.typePublication
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