Publication: The development of a system dynamics model to evaluate electricity generation expansion in New Zealand
Date
2010
Authors
Jalal T.S.
Bodger P.
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Abstract
Many countries exhibited cycles of shortfall and overbuilding (bust and boom) of their installed generation capacity after they restructured their electricity industries. A similar pattern has also been observed in New Zealand after its electricity industry was restructured in 1987. This study proposes a system dynamics (SD) model to study the phenomenon. Advantages of this model over other approaches are discussed in this paper. The model is customised to incorporate the market structure and electricity industry in New Zealand. The model is then used to evaluate the projections made in the New Zealand Electricity Commission (EC)'s planning publication, Statement of Opportunity 2008 (SOO 2008). Unlike the Generation Expansion Model (GEM) model used by EC, the SD model predicts that some boom and bust cycles may happen in New Zealand in the future under different projected scenarios.
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Keywords
Capacity cycles , Generation expansion planning , Policy evaluation , System dynamics , Electric industry , Electricity , Expansion , System theory , Boom and bust cycles , Capacity cycles , Electricity generation , Electricity industry , Generation capacity , Generation expansion , Generation expansion planning , Market structures , New zealand , Policy evaluation , Similar pattern , System dynamics , System dynamics model , Electric generators