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Hydrological response of tropical rivers basins to climate change using the GR2M model: the case of the Casamance and Kayanga-G�va rivers basins

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dc.citedby4
dc.contributor.authorSadio C.A.A.S.en_US
dc.contributor.authorFaye C.en_US
dc.contributor.authorPande C.B.en_US
dc.contributor.authorTolche A.D.en_US
dc.contributor.authorAli M.S.en_US
dc.contributor.authorCabral-Pinto M.M.S.en_US
dc.contributor.authorElsahabi M.en_US
dc.contributor.authorid58237340000en_US
dc.contributor.authorid58614824600en_US
dc.contributor.authorid57193547008en_US
dc.contributor.authorid57198446685en_US
dc.contributor.authorid55647599300en_US
dc.contributor.authorid22133337700en_US
dc.contributor.authorid57192111974en_US
dc.date.accessioned2024-10-14T03:17:29Z
dc.date.available2024-10-14T03:17:29Z
dc.date.issued2023
dc.description.abstractThe main objective of this research is to evaluate the effects of climate change first on precipitation and temperature, and then on the runoff characteristics of two tropical watersheds located in Senegal and Guinea-Bissau. To achieve this, eighteen General Circulation Models (GCMs) were selected to measure various climate change scenarios under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways�(SSP) SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, using the reference period of 1985�2014. The GR2M hydrological model was employed to replicate past monthly surface runoff patterns for the Casamance and Kayanga-G�va watersheds. After calibrating and validating the GR2M model, the researchers simulated the predictable effect of climate change on the flow for the near future (2021�2040), medium future (2041�2060), and distant future (2081�2100) for each watershed, using the GCM multi-model ensemble mean. The quantile method was used to correct bias in temperature and precipitation data. The results of bias correction give a correlation coefficient greater than 0.9% for temperatures and 0,6% precipitation between the outputs of the multi-model ensemble and observations used. The results indicate also that all watersheds are expected to experience drier conditions in the near-future, mid-future, and far-future periods under both the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Furthermore, the predictable temperature trends consistently show a warmer situation with growing radiative making in the future times. However, the primary factor influencing changes in flow for all watersheds is the projected precipitation changes. The anticipated drier conditions in the near-future, mid-future, and far-future horizons under both scenarios would lead to significantly reduced runoff volumes at the beginning and middle of the rainy season. Consequently, the projected seasonal changes in river flow for all catchments (e.g., under SSP5-8.5 scenario, a decline of -34.47%, -56.01%, and -68.01% was noted, respectively, for the horizons 2050, 2070, and 2090 for the Casamance basin) could lead to new frequent occurrences of drought and water scarcity associated with past hydrological regimes. These scenarios enhance the necessity of improving water management, water prizing, and water recycling policies, to ensure water supply and to reduce tensions among regions and countries. � 2023, The Author(s).en_US
dc.description.natureFinalen_US
dc.identifier.ArtNo113
dc.identifier.doi10.1186/s12302-023-00822-4
dc.identifier.issue1
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85179842733
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85179842733&doi=10.1186%2fs12302-023-00822-4&partnerID=40&md5=4a6dbdb63891fc5715588bbb3593b983
dc.identifier.urihttps://irepository.uniten.edu.my/handle/123456789/33941
dc.identifier.volume35
dc.publisherSpringeren_US
dc.relation.ispartofAll Open Access
dc.relation.ispartofGold Open Access
dc.sourceScopus
dc.sourcetitleEnvironmental Sciences Europe
dc.subjectCasamance and Kayanga-G�va basins
dc.subjectClimate change
dc.subjectGR2M
dc.subjectHydrological projection
dc.subjectModelization
dc.subjectSSP
dc.subjectCasamance
dc.subjectGuinea-Bissau
dc.subjectSenegal
dc.subjectCatchments
dc.subjectClimate change
dc.subjectClimate models
dc.subjectRivers
dc.subjectRunoff
dc.subjectTropics
dc.subjectCasamance and kayangum-geva basin
dc.subjectDry condition
dc.subjectGeneral circulation model
dc.subjectGR2M
dc.subjectHydrological projection
dc.subjectModelization
dc.subjectMulti-model ensemble
dc.subjectRiver basins
dc.subjectShared socioeconomic pathway
dc.subjectSocio-economics
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.subjectgeneral circulation model
dc.subjecthydrological modeling
dc.subjectriver basin
dc.subjectriver flow
dc.subjectrunoff
dc.subjectwater supply
dc.subjectWatersheds
dc.titleHydrological response of tropical rivers basins to climate change using the GR2M model: the case of the Casamance and Kayanga-G�va rivers basinsen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dspace.entity.typePublication
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