Publication: Conceptual Sim-Heuristic optimization algorithm to evaluate the climate impact on reservoir operations
Date
2022
Authors
Lai V.
Huang Y.F.
Koo C.H.
Najah Ahmed A.
El-Shafie A.
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Elsevier B.V.
Abstract
This study covers the application of sim-heuristics to simulate and optimise the KLang Gate Dam (KGD) operating rule curve using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate scenarios. This research aims to examine future climate change impacts on the KGD reservoir water resources. First, based on model institution location and data availability, a few General Circulation Models (GCMs) under the CMIP5 were chosen. Most earlier studies had solely examined the impact of climate change on future reservoir operations using a single GCM. The ensemble of GCMs for precipitation, temperature (Maximum, Minimum, and Mean), and solar radiation for the base period (1991�2005) and future climatic scenarios under the Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 were downscaled, trained, and tested using data-driven techniques namely; the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and the Support Vector Regression (SVR). During the base period, the SVR (Poly function) achieved R performance values of 0.6201, 0.5743, 0.6926, and 0.6073 for the respective predictant variables. Upon addressing for rainfall-runoff, the Turc-radiation evaporation strategy was utilised at this study location since it was suitable for the tropical, humid, or sub-humid region. Few scenarios were developed to forecast water demand. Scenario 1 was based on the base period (1991�2005) of water demand, whereas Scenarios 2 and 3 were based on maximum and mean temperatures, respectively (2020�2099). The results were then evaluated in terms of storage failure, reliability, resilience, and vulnerability. Overall, Scenario 3 showed the greatest reliability in satisfying exact demand with 93.54 %, as well as the least shortage index and length of water deficit under RCP 4.5. � 2022 Elsevier B.V.
Description
Climate change; Climate models; Digital storage; Neural networks; Reservoirs (water); Water resources; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Coupled model intercomparison project 5; Down-scaling; General circulation model; Klang gate dam; Metaheuristic; Optimisations; Reservoir operation; Simulation; Support vector regressions; Optimization; climate change; climate effect