Delay factor model for Malaysia hydro power dam

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Mohd Zakwan Ramli, Dr.
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Construction is an important sector in improving the quality of life and living standard of Malaysian people. Hydropower dam is a vital infrastructure asset. Globally, human populations are increasing rapidly every year and it contributes to increasing the demand of developments to cater the population needs. This will result in increasing the demand of electricity usage. Most of construction projects in Malaysia including mega projects are facing delay problems. According to records based on 417 listed projects, 17.3% of Government projects were delayed for more than 90 days. Hydropower dams are commonly developed in remote areas which the location is within mountainous and valley regions. Due to the condition of the site location, the construction of hydropower dam processes is more complex. Hydropower project is one of a mega project which the cost can be billions of Ringgit Malaysia and that makes it as an important project to be monitored and controlled to ensure that it can be constructed properly according to the plan. Therefore, the main purpose of this research is to gain further understanding on development of construction delay risk model for hydropower project in Malaysia. The research process involves the identification of risk factors and its impacts in infrastructure construction projects. There were two main phases crafted for the methodology of this research to fulfil its objectives. Data collection for both phases were completed by using questionnaire surveys but to different group of respondents. Phase 1 was conducted by collecting data from experts to verify the information gathered regarding delay risk variables, factors, impacts, and its relationship before the conceptual delay risk model developed. The second phase data collection was taken from group of respondents involved in any hydropower projects in Malaysia regardless their years of experience. Partial Least Square-Structural Equation Modelling was used as the validation method for the conceptual risk model. From the finalised model, it showed that coefficients of determination (R2) is 0.598, predictive relevance (Q2) is 0.222, and the most critical delay risk variables are Equipment & Machinery, Project, and Material. An equation of delay risk for hydropower construction projects in Malaysia was established based on developed delay risk model. The model was validated by using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Since the MAPE value determined in this research is 11.6% which is interpreted as accurate to forecast, therefore the developed delay risk model equation can be used for future project planning for planner to assess the impact of the potential risks they identified for their hydropower project.