Publication: Stream flow projection for Muar river in Malaysia using precis-HEC-HMS model
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Date
2015
Authors
Malek M.A.
Heyrani M.
Juneng L.
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Akademi Sains Malaysia
Abstract
In this study, the implementation of the Regional Climate Model into the hydrodynamic model has been applied for streamflow projection on a river located at the south of Peninsular Malaysia within the years 2070 till 2099. The data has been obtained from a Regional Climate Model (RCM), named Precis, on a daily basis. It begins by comparing historical rainfall data generated from Precis versus the actual gauged recorded rainfall data from Department of Irrigation and Drainage Malaysia (DID). The bias of the generated rainfall data has been reduced by statistical techniques. The same has been applied to the future generated rainfall data from 2070 to 2099. Using the generated precipitation data as input to the hydrological model, results in the daily output of river discharge identified as the main contributor of flood occurrences. Based on the results of the hydrological model utilised, e.g. HEC-HMS, comparison was made between the future and historical generated discharge data using Precis between the years 1960 till 1998. Dividing a year into three segments, e.g. January-April, May-August, September-December, the results show that there would be a significant drop of peak discharge in the third segment and an increase in discharge during the second segment. The first part remains almost with no changes. As an addition, the drop of the peak shows reduction in the probability of flood occurrences. It also indicates the reduction in water storage capacity which coherently affects the water supply scheme.